While following the ongoing headlines about the Middle East, we contemplate how the conflict will play out in the weeks ahead and its long-term impact. Will there be a regime change in Iran? Will President Trump take further military action if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping? How will this conflict impact future productivity and economies of neighboring oil-producing countries? Does this conflict increase US tensions with China and constrain Chinese oil imports and potential economic growth?
The headlines are evolving constantly but the impact on the US markets began with the rapid initial increase in the price per barrel of oil. The US 10-year treasury bond has spiked significantly since the war began. The previously accepted outlook for two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has now shifted, some believing the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates due to inflationary pressures this year. This has pushed mortgage rates higher, with the 30-year fixed now approaching 6.4%, adding to ongoing challenges in the housing market.[1] This highlights how events overseas can directly affect the US economy – something many have noticed over the weekend at the gas pump.
A year ago, the financial markets were in disarray, mostly due to President Trump’s tariff proposals and the global concerns surrounding “Liberation Day.” However, these trade policies evolved, and the short-term market correction proved to be a blip in what ended up being a very positive 2025.
Over time, staying invested has mattered far more than getting the timing right. Some of the market’s strongest days came amid the most unsettling headlines.
In his annual chairman’s letter released on Monday, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote, “Over time, staying invested has mattered far more than getting the timing right. Some of the market’s strongest days came amid the most unsettling headlines.”
He pointed to the past two decades as a stark example: every dollar invested in the S&P 500 grew more than eightfold. But investors who missed just the 10 best days over that stretch would have earned less than half as much.[2] We saw these dynamics play out following the 9/11 attacks, the financial crisis in 2008 and the more recent COVID-19 pandemic.
In times of uncertainty, it’s natural to be caught up in ominous headlines and predict catastrophe – but we should instead draw on lessons learned during prior crises. Our team uses downturns to stress test portfolios, and to reinforce that investments are appropriately allocated to balance short- and long-term objectives. While portfolio losses remain a key concern, we also emphasize inflation risk—particularly given its recent impact on those living on fixed incomes.
Please join me in looking forward to more stable and positive times. We are ready and available to meet if you seek reassurance that we are appropriately aligned and informed of any changes to your short-term goals and longer-term objectives.
As we noted in our recent client webinar, successful investing means keeping both parkas and swimsuits on hand—so you’re prepared for whatever market climate lies ahead.
Stay the course,
Jeff Fishman
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[1] https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/mortgage/mortgage-rates-today-3-23-2026?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcZdAjMXJipObzV7koxfFfG_PsO0SQH-d527BXI0dEGsRkZZX2M0lR3cxEYbDg%3D&gaa_ts=69c18aa9&gaa_sig=BD7EX8TRdRpkteAI-26VuhXlypy5VO8vI0dz1YgY1gLUEM8ooZ0TuU59KzVf_Z-W6krTtNcjZFQkcsAEosB_dQ%3D%3D
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/blackrocks-larry-fink-warns-against-trying-to-time-the-market-.html
