I hope this finds everyone refreshed and feeling hopeful for the prospect of the new year ahead. While it will no doubt have its highs and lows, we remain poised and ready to work alongside you as we embark on the journey into 2026 together. With the lively and busy year-end now behind us, I have long made it a practice to take the first few days of the new year to reflect on the last 365 days. While every year is unique, each reinforces the notion that it’s impossible to plan for every contingency in life no matter how hard we try.
Following are several of the unexpected events of 2025 that resonated with me most:
– The horrific Palisades and Altadena fires in early January forever changed much of our LA community and landscape. Tragically, a number of our clients unspeakably lost their homes, and many at large remain displaced, surrounded by questions regarding rebuilding, insurance coverage, government benefits, tax losses and the future cost and scope of homeowners insurance policies in Southern California.
– The financial markets in early April were on the brink of reaching a bear market, falling just under 20% in reaction to newly imposed tariffs and “liberation day.”[1] However, a quick about face by the administration prompted the financial markets to reverse course and by year end the equity markets posted the third consecutive year of positive double digit returns.[2]
– Unemployment increased significantly across the US ending the year at 4.6%.[3] Many are concerned about future job opportunities, especially considering potential enhanced business productivity from new AI initiatives and capabilities.
– Those in the entertainment industry are still reeling following multiple industry strikes and significant changes in the volume and nature of production. Further, recent consolidation along with pending transactions has led many to reassess the future economic growth and sustainability of the local entertainment industry.
– AI is rapidly transforming industries and our society. Many have lauded the potential benefits to medical research and patient care along with future changes to our approach to education. Looking back to the advent of the internet in the late 90’s, it completely changed our lives even though skepticism and concern. While it’s impossible to predict, it’s clear that we are on the cusp of monumental changes in many of our lives due to AI.
– The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates three times by a total of .75% in 2025.[4] However, mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, which have led to continued softness in the housing markets. Unless mortgage rates fall significantly, it’s hard to foresee housing prices increasing in 2026.
– The war between Russia and Ukraine entered its fourth year but US support for Ukraine seems to be wavering. Many anticipate the conflict will be concluded soon.
A year ago, analysts were anticipating inflation in 2025 exceeding 4%[5] due to new tariffs but this proved incorrect. Instead, inflation statistics show elevated but not out of control inflation, thereby likely leading to additional decreases in the Fed funds rate in 2026. In addition, there will likely be a more dovish Chairman of the Federal Reserve who will assume office in the Spring. Tax cuts will also provide tax refunds across many households that should buoy consumer spending in the first half of the year. Nevertheless, experts, especially in the bond markets, remain concerned that inflation could rise again due to the combination of our National Debt size and the potential accelerant in the US economy stemming from different forms of Government stimulus.
The herd was wrong again in their 2025 forecasts. Market pundits predicted single digit gains in the S&P 500, however the year closed with an increase of 16.39%.[6] Much of these gains were concentrated in companies benefiting from the AI surge but the volatility experienced by some of these companies during 2025 remained on the forefront. This further reinforces the impossibility of market timing.
As we navigate a new year, we urge you to use this time of new beginnings to think about your risk tolerance, the time horizon for requiring portfolio withdrawals, potential personal risks, current tax legislation, family dynamics and the possibility of accessing or needing to replenish emergency funds.
There will inevitably be unexpected events and unforeseen headlines again this year. As I’m writing this, we are trying to decipher the significance of the U.S. apprehension of the leader of Venezuela and effectively taking control over their government.
No matter what lies ahead, I urge you to reflect on the substantial market gains through the concerns and volatility we experienced in the past few years. The benefits realized by staying disciplined and unemotional through the year’s hyperbole and increased volatility have been remarkable.
JSF experienced record growth in assets in 2025, due to the outstanding combination of our dedicated staff and our loyal clientele. We now have 3 team members who have marked 25 years at JSF, which is just one steppingstone to note as we embark on our firm’s 30th anniversary this year. JSF has endured the massive market downturns of 2000, 2008 and 2020 which was accompanied by a global pandemic. I often say that every calamity is an opportunity, and I appreciate your continued support—whether you’ve been part of the journey from the beginning or have joined more recently.
We are eager to face the challenges and opportunities that arise as we continue to work together with you in the new year. Please reach out to connect with our team if there are any updates in your personal circumstances or you want to discuss your 2026 projected needs.
While we know nothing in life is linear, here’s to a new year full of good health, much happiness, new opportunities and continued prosperity for us all.
Stay the course,
Jeff Fishman
The information expressed herein are those of JSF Financial, LLC, it does not necessarily reflect the views of NewEdge Securities, LLC. Neither JSF Financial LLC nor NewEdge Securities, LLC gives tax or legal advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation or recommendation for the purchase, sale or holding of any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
Historical data shown represents past performance and does not guarantee comparable future results. The information and statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources believed to be reliable but in no way are guaranteed by JSF Financial, LLC or NewEdge Securities, LLC as to accuracy or completeness. The information provided is not intended to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any strategy. The examples presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the trades referenced in this material before investing. Asset Allocation and Diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index measures the investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market and includes Treasury securities, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, market value-weighted index of 500 stocks generally representative of the broad stock market.
TLT-iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants.
The Nasdaq Composite is a market-capitalization-weighted index consisting of all Nasdaq Stock Exchange listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds or debenture securities.
Treasury Bond- is a U.S. government debt security with a fixed interest rate and maturity between two and 10 years.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period. GDP is the most commonly used measure of economic activity.
By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nasdaq-set-confirm-bear-market-trump-tariffs-trigger-recession-fears-2025-04-04/
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/were-pretty-upbeat-stock-market-experts-expect-continued-growth-bolstered-by-ai-in-2026.html
[3] https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-november-retail-sales
[4] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12/10/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates
[5] https://fortune.com/2025/08/27/deutsche-bank-investors-ignoring-tariff-driven-inflation/
[6] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
